Is COVID-19 the next Pandemic?
Over thirty-seven countries have reported cases of Covid-19 since the beginning of the outbreak, bringing the total confirmed cases to 81,109 and over 2,700 deaths globally. World Health Organization (WHO), National Governments and humanitarian organizations all over the world have stepped up measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 and these efforts are yielding positive results, particularly in China. Although person-to-person transmission of the disease in countries outside China calls for a redoubling of these efforts.
The global mortality rate of Covid-19 is around 3%, even though country-specific mortality rate as high as 7% has been recorded in Iran. Overall, the mortality from Covid-19 is relatively low when compared to previous outbreaks of similar respiratory diseases like SARS and MERS, nonetheless, the spread of Covid-19 remains unprecedented.
The spread of Covid-19 has led to different levels of movement restrictions for both humans and commodities by countries across the globe, leading to a downturn in trade and commerce. For instance, stock exchange markets in the US, Europe and China are already witnessing the impacts of this, as stock prices begin to plunge following the increasing spread of the virus, also, economic indicators point to a looming recession if this spread continues unabated. All these events lend credence to the fact that the biggest impact of COVID- 19 spread would be on the global economy.
The latest discussion on Covid-19 is when to declare it a pandemic. There have been arguments and counter-arguments on this subject but the pertinent question is what really defines pandemic with respect to Covid-19 — the spread, severity or global economic impact? Pandemic sounds like the word to throw around now but the use in this context remains an academic exercise if the current action plans on containment are not meticulously implemented.
Also, what is the threshold for declaring a Covid-19 pandemic, what would be the impact of such declaration in terms of containment, mitigation of the disease and population perception? Inasmuch as declaring Covid-19 as pandemic should be an ongoing discussion, it is, however, important to envisage a preparedness that is in tandem with the declaration, and there should be a clear activation of another level of preparedness and response higher than what the WHO declaration of the disease as Public Health emergency of international Concern (PHEIC) currently covers. Failure to achieve this, declaring Covid-19 as a pandemic without first clarifying the criteria for a pandemic in terms of spread, severity and impact will cause more fear and lead to a panic response.
Talking about widespread fear and panic response, another worrisome dimension in Covid-19 containment is information management. In the era of social media, the spread of rumours has attained a frightening dimension from hearsay, social media posts to closed group discussion platforms. In the last 24 hours, I have seen information and advice on what works for and against Covid-19 different from what is recommended by the WHO.
Having had a first-hand experience of the misguided ‘salt bath’ as a purported preventive measure for the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Nigeria, which eventually led to more people being hospitalized as a result of excessive salt ingestion than the total number of Ebola cases recorded in the country. Hence, it is quite instructive to use every avenue to sensitize the population on WHO safety measures which include hand hygiene and cough etiquette, and in countries with reported cases or individuals with significant travel history, self-isolation and self-reporting to appropriate authority when they suspect any of the symptoms related to the virus is a vital step in Covid-19 containment.
Finally, as the spread of Covid-19 continues, the focus should be on intensifying the current strategy on containment, adjusting the response plan as new evidence on the virus unfolds and promoting international solidarity devoid of discrimination.
